Modeled Conversion
ConceptA modeled conversion is a conversion an ad platform reports without having observed it, estimated statistically from the conversions it could observe.
What is Modeled conversion, in plain English?
An exit poll does not ask everyone how they voted — it asks some people and estimates the rest. When a browser blocks the tracking that would have linked a click to a purchase, the platform does the same thing: it looks at the journeys it can still see and fills in the ones it cannot.
Modeled conversion example
A platform observes 700 conversions directly and reports 1,000. The remaining 300 are modeled — inferred from the behaviour of comparable observed users whose consent or tracking signal survived.
Common Modeled conversion mistakes
Modeled conversions cannot be matched to a row in your orders table, because no specific order corresponds to them. Attempting to reconcile a modeled number line by line against your database will always fail, and the failure is not a bug. Modeling is also directional: platforms model their own conversions, and the estimate has never been audited against your books.
Last reviewed August 28, 2026.