Modeled Conversion
ConceptA modeled conversion is a conversion an ad platform reports without having observed it, estimated statistically from the conversions it could observe.
An exit poll does not ask everyone how they voted — it asks some people and estimates the rest. When a browser blocks the tracking that would have linked a click to a purchase, the platform does the same thing: it looks at the journeys it can still see and fills in the ones it cannot.
A platform observes 700 conversions directly and reports 1,000. The remaining 300 are modeled — inferred from the behaviour of comparable observed users whose consent or tracking signal survived.
Modeled conversions cannot be matched to a row in your orders table, because no specific order corresponds to them. Attempting to reconcile a modeled number line by line against your database will always fail, and the failure is not a bug. Modeling is also directional: platforms model their own conversions, and the estimate has never been audited against your books.
Last reviewed August 28, 2026.