Dynamic Baseline (Anomaly Detection)
ConceptA dynamic baseline is the expected value of a metric for a given moment — same-weekday trailing median, trend-adjusted, season- and event-aware — plus a tolerance band. Alerts fire on deviation from expectation rather than on crossing a fixed line.
What is Dynamic baseline, in plain English?
Instead of "alert if CAC crosses ₹400" (wrong within a quarter as the business grows), the baseline asks "is today weird for a Tuesday, given the last four Tuesdays and the fact that it is Diwali week?". Only genuine surprises page anyone.
Dynamic baseline example
Yesterday's CAC vs the median of the same weekday over the prior 4 weeks: +38% deviation on a matured window with no calendar event fires an "investigate" alert — with the auto-decomposition (CPM flat, CVR down) attached so the human starts from a hypothesis.
Common Dynamic baseline mistakes
Never evaluate efficiency alerts on immature windows (conversion lag makes yesterday always look "down"), never alert humans about unactionable trivia, and review false positives monthly — an unreviewed channel trains itself to be ignored. Detection should be deterministic rules; let narratives explain, not decide severity.
Last reviewed September 6, 2026.